The past Saturday happens to be a very tense one as Taiwan's political future depends on the outcome of the election of who should be the next president of Taiwan and which party should rule. The Nationalist(Kuomingtang), the democratic Progressive party, or the People First party. The outcome not only affects the political climate of the Taiwan people as a whole it also affects the crucial cross straight relationship between Taiwan and the mainland which is a major trading partner especially after China has now the most important economic powerhouse of the world. Cross straight relationship had always been a sticky issue between the Island of the exiled Nationalist party and the communist ruling the mainland.
There can be different reasons how the Nationalist KMT is now dominate when just a few years ago Taiwanese got more power in politics and many of them favored the Pro-Taiwan Independence Democratic Progressive party. One reason might be the same reason why Hillary Clinton lost in the US. The Democratic Progressive Party's candidate Tsai Li Wen is the first female candidate in ROC's history. I bet there is always a reluctance to accept a break tradition for people of any country even though they want to encourage women to prove they can do it. Though one would wonder what if the candidate is another man and not a women? Would the results be different? Though my guess is Mainlanders now rule Taiwan once again. I guess the positive image China gives to Taiwan changed the Taiwanese vs Mainlander mentality. Unlike fifty years ago to twenty years ago where contact had all been severely restricted now there are nonstop cross straight flights, cross straight cargo shipping, and now there is even cross strait car passenger ferry that travels from Taichung to Xiamen. I guess Taiwanese are also starting to trust the Nationalists after Ma Yin Jao's first term and the successful passing of EcFa to reduce barriers between Taiwan and mainland commerce. I guess support for the Democratic progressive party who encourages Taiwan to liberate from China completely therefore eliminating the Republic of China rule and start a new Taiwanese government has somehow declined. This is hard to believe as a few years ago Chen Shui Bian, the former Democratic progressive party president who entered office in 2000 was reelected for one more term in 2004 and stayed in office until 2008 despite poor ratings and being accused of mismanaging public funds since he entered presidency in 2000 but the Taiwanese would still want to keep him in office in order to keep the hopes of getting China off their backs. There is some similarities of how George W Bush was reelected although many people disapprove of him and angers at his war policies maybe due to the fear that attacked countries would retaliate when another president who is unfamiliar with the situation takes office despite the fact that candidate Kerry was a Vietnam war veteran while Bush actually dodged compulsary military service back then.
To explain who the Taiwanese are they are the people who are either aborginals who traveled by boat to Taiwan from Philippines or other islands in near Taiwan as early as a thousand years ago or the ones who immigrated from the Fujian providence well before the Japanese military takeover in the early 1900s.
So would Taiwan become a Special Administrative Area or SAR of China? Following the example of Hong Kong? It seems like it might not happen in the next few years although as the island's residents build up increased trust with the mainland and mainland improves its human rights issues it might just happen one day.